Sobering reality check for Cope after whitewash

FORCING municipal by-elections through the resignation of councillors was always going to be a risky strategy and it proved to be just that in Nelson Mandela Bay on Wednesday when the ANC comfortably retained eight wards in what was to all intents and purposes a straight contest between the ANC and the Congress of the People (Cope). Although, in fairness, Cope has only been campaigning for two months and lacks the structures and 97-year-old brand of the ANC.

But the fact remains that Cope did not win 30 per cent of the vote in any ward and this trend was reflected in other by-elections across the country where the two parties clashed. It will, however, not be too dismayed at achieving an average of 20% of the vote in the metro.

It is possible to draw a number of conclusions from the results in Nelson Mandela Bay, not least of which is that the ANC continues to be the party of choice for the majority of people in this country. In addition, as is reflected in the percentage poll that was over 50% in most wards, the ANC can mobilise its forces on the ground to persuade its supporters to vote, just as it did in 1994 when the organisation in almost military fashion lined up people to cast their ballots.

While it is unwise to project too widely on the basis of municipal by-elections, what can be stated is that there is no evidence to suggest on the basis of these results that the ANC is not set for comfortable victories both nationally and in the Eastern Cape in April, and that the scenario of a possible opposition coalition in Nelson Mandela Bay remains rooted to the drawing board, at least until 2011.

If Cope conducts an honest evaluation it will be forced to concede that in an area where it had strong and accepted leaders, and which was viewed as a heartland of its support, it failed to win a single ward and in five of the eight it could not muster 20%.

Dreams of winning control of local authorities and even provinces remain just that for the immediate future.

Further, it faces the challenge of maintaining the momentum over the next seven weeks until the election with finance a major challenge.

The initial frenzy that followed the breakaway from the ANC has been to some considerable extent lost and the leadership now faces the task of regenerating its support base if this trend is not to continue.

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No aid while Mugabe remains

US President Barack Obama‘s decision to renew sanctions against Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and other senior Zanu-PF figures because some members of the unity government “continued to undermine democratic processes and institutions” is further evidence the world wants significant change in that country before it will consider changing its stance. As MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai said in his maiden speech in parliament this week, “No donor country or institution is going to offer any meaningful assistance unless our new government projects a positive new image”. That, he earlier noted, included the release of opposition supporters being held by the police. It is clear Mugabe has no intention of honouring the agreement that led to the formation of the unity government. Rather, we suspect he and his security chiefs who now form the spine of his administration allowed the deal to go ahead to protect their own positions rather than any commitment to return the country to democracy and address the plight of the people. It is also clear there will be no fresh elections nor an end to the immense suffering of the people of Zimbabwe until Mugabe and those who continue to support him are removed from power.