SA’s citrus exports are expected to remain steady this season, aligning with the five-year average and ensuring a stable supply for global markets.
According to Citrus Growers’ Association Southern Africa chair Gerrit van der Merwe, the projections indicate neither an oversupply nor a shortage.
He said the quality of fruit for 2025 looked excellent.
The breakdown of various variety estimates indicates a balanced season ahead.
The current prediction is that 32.9 million 15kg cartons of lemons will be exported to key markets, which represents a 5% decrease from 2024.
Estimates for citrus-producing regions, the Sundays River Valley, Senwes region comprising Marble Hall and Groblersdal, Boland, and Patensie are all down, but Hoedspruit is estimated to increase its lemon production.
Early lemons have already started to be sent to overseas markets, especially to the Middle East, Russia and Canada.
Figures for navel and Valencia oranges are expected to be up in 2025.
Predictions show a 5% increase in export volume for navel oranges, at 26.1 million 15kg cartons available for packing.
The association’s Orange Focus Group has, for the first time, split estimates into early/mid-navels (11.34 million cartons) and late navels (14.75 million cartons) to improve tracking.
In 2024, unusual weather events such as floods in the Western Cape and frost in Limpopo affected navel exports, but weather-permitting, volumes are expected to improve in 2025.
After four years of slight declines in Valencia orange figures, exports are likely to improve in 2025.
An increase on 2024 figures of 6% to 52 million 15kg cartons is projected.
The possible impact of juicing prices on this figure is not yet quantifiable.
In 2025, unusually high local processing prices suppressed exports of Valencia oranges.
Grapefruit exports are also predicted to increase.
The 6% growth figure translates into 13.5 million 17kg cartons.
The peak period for grapefruit exports is expected to be between mid-April and mid-May.
The association’s Grapefruit Focus Group is also embarking on a new marketing project this season, aiming to drive an increase in grapefruit consumption among a younger target audience in the European market.
Two early mandarin varieties show stability in supply.
The Satsuma season is likely to again, as in 2024, close around the 1.8 million 15kg cartons mark.
The nova season shows a slight 2% decrease to 4.5 million 15kg cartons.
The third early mandarin variety, clementines, presents a solid increase of 10%, with exports expected to increase to 5.4 million 15kg cartons.
The estimates for late mandarin varieties will only be made in April when more accurate production data is available.
Meetings of all the variety focus groups are also held on a regular basis during the season to track and update estimates if needed.
The association’s chief executive Boitshoko Ntshabele said long-term projections still showed that if all role players worked together to address the challenges, the industry could reach its target of exporting 260 million cartons by 2032, creating 100,000 new jobs.
Two of the largest challenges to achieving this target remained deficient rail and port logistics and the EU’s unnecessary phytosanitary (plant health) measures regarding citrus black spot disease and the false codling moth pest.
The association’s logistics development manager, Mitchell Brooke, said the body was grateful for the progress made by Transnet in terms of equipment acquisitions at ports, but the long-term way to achieve the needed efficiency was through the structural change that only public sector participation could bring.
A recent study by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy found that the total cost of inefficient logistics to the citrus industry amounted to R5.27bn per year.
The Herald
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