As Nelson Mandela Bay battles with a resurgence of Covid-19 cases, the number of excess natural deaths is starting to accelerate again.
The weekly number of excess natural deaths in the Bay has increased steadily since March 2021, reaching a high of 285 on June 21.
The figure dropped slightly on June 27, with a death toll of 266 recorded.
The Medical Research Council found the surge in natural deaths in the Bay had increased above its upper prediction bound between June 27 and July 3.
This is according to the latest report on excess deaths by the council.
During the metro’s coronavirus peak in the first week of July 2020, 488 excess natural deaths occurred.
The number in the Bay rose to a record high in the second week of November, with 630 reported.
The council routinely releases a weekly mortality report, based on death records from the department of home affairs.
Each report includes a forecast range of natural deaths per week, with an upper and lower bound calculated from historical data.
Excess deaths are those above the upper bound.
Natural deaths are those caused by disease or age, while non-natural deaths are those due to accidents and violence.
The council estimates that nationally between 85% and 95% of excess natural deaths are due to Covid-19.
The remainder are considered to be attributable to collateral causes, probably due to an overwhelmed health service during surges in the pandemic.
On Tuesday, Eastern Cape health MEC Nomakhosazana Meth confirmed the arrival of the third wave in the city and had strong words for residents who disregarded regulations despite rising case numbers.
“We’re at war, a war with an enemy that does not negotiate or discriminate,” Meth said.
Health department spokesperson Sizwe Kupelo urged residents to seek medical attention early to avoid serious complications and possible death.
“Our plea is for people to take the virus seriously and continue to practise non-pharmaceutical interventions — this remains the only effective method to prevent infections and the spread of the virus,” he said.
Between May 3 2020 and July 3 2021, 5,231 excess deaths were recorded in the Bay.
Nationally, the figure is 182,369.
A total of 2,904 active Covid-19 cases were recorded in the metro on July 7.
Almost half — 46% — of all new cases in the province are in the metro.
In addition, 57.3% of the Eastern Cape’s total number of cases arose in the Bay.
This is according to an epidemiology report — dated July 7 — which warned that urgent steps needed to be taken to ensure non-pharmaceutical preventive measures were implemented, case-detection increased and contact tracing enhanced.
According to the report, there were 546 hospital admissions for Covid-19 across the province by July 7.
Of these, 311 were in private facilities and 235 in public care.
Eighty-eight of these patients were in ICU and a further 70 were on ventilators, with the majority in general Covid-19 wards.
In the Bay, 339 people had been admitted to hospital.
The next-highest hospital admission rate was Buffalo City, with 71 patients admitted.
HeraldLIVE
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