Public transport — where it is available in South Africa — could potentially cushion the blow of oil and domestic petrol price shocks due to the US-Israel and Iran war, with higher income groups likely to be more severely affected.
The hikes on April 1 are projected to be the highest ever to be implemented in a single month in South Africa, signalling what promises to be a significant economic slump for the country in 2026.
Any measurable departure away from the high rates of private vehicle use will have a significant effect. South Africa, however, is widely regarded as possessing an inefficient public transport service.
Independent economist John Loos said, if anything else, the periodic bouts of high petrol prices should serve as a reminder of the need to develop far more comprehensive and better-quality public transport for cities.
“When breaking down the modes of land transport to view the impact of oil price shocks, it appears those having to use private transport will likely be more directly impacted, whereas public transport inflation during a fuel price shock might be less severe,” Loos said.
”In times of a fuel price shock, public transport operators appear to absorb a portion of the cost increase, while in the fuel price dips they don’t cut fares accordingly, thus smoothing out the volatile fuel price cycles for public transport users significantly."
Loos said the 2022 oil and domestic transport fuel price spike, driven in large part due to the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, showed private transport users are likely to experience the most severe direct transport cost inflation impact during an oil price shock, while public transport inflation should be less severe.
Much of the negative perception about public transport is levelled at rail.
The Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (Prasa), which has a network of more than 2,000km of track, has historically been plagued by ageing infrastructure, vandalism, lack of reliability and effectiveness, fraud, corruption and safety concerns.
The entity launched its general overhaul (GO) programme in 2022 at a cost of R7.5bn (of which R3.48bn had been spent by the end of March 2025).
GO was established to refurbish and extend the service life of Prasa’s legacy rolling stock fleet — the older Metrorail coaches and main line passenger services locomotives that serve millions of commuters across South Africa’s metropolitan regions.
The programme involves seven contractors appointed under a five-year contract signed in June 2022, but has faced allegations of corruption, price inflation and contractor underperformance.
Prasa said it has grown its ridership from 2023/2024 financial year of 39.4-million, to 77-million by last year.
Group spokesperson Andiswa Makanda said the rail agency “is on track to reach the 100-million mark by the end of 2026″.
Makanda said its high-tech electric multiple unit trains are capable of carrying up to 2,400 commuters per train set. At that scale, every fully loaded service is the equivalent of removing more than 1,000 private vehicles from the road, reducing traffic congestion during peak hours and carbon footprint.
“Prasa has started the rebuilding and modernising the signalling system to reduce journey times, increase frequency of the services and enhance safe movement of trains. The Mabopane corridor in Gauteng has been fully resignalled and the southern line in the Western Cape, which services the Simon’s Town to Cape Town route.”
The entity said signalling from KwaMashu to Durban in KwaZulu-Natal has been restored and the rest of the province’s signalling project rollout is in progress.
Prasa said it has improved trains arriving on time to more than 91% with less than 5% cancellations.
Emeritus professor in logistics, Stellenbosch University, Jan Hevenga, said low-income households spend as much as 50% of income on commuting.
“In places like India it is less than 10%. This is a major objective, to get to 10% and less,” Hevenga said.
“The minister has made it concrete in her 600-million rail passenger journeys by 2030. Not only will we bring highly affordable commuting to vulnerable communities, it will be safer, more comfortable and more sustainable and resilient. Our trains run on electricity generated in South Africa, where we have endless carbon and green sources to generate electricity.
“Fuel is 40% of freight transport costs and freight transport is on average 25% of the total cost of goods. Every 10% growth in the fuel price could easily make everything 1% more expensive. That will have a massive inflationary impact. If the railway was operating effectively, that shock could be halved.”
Last year transport minister Barbara Creecy launched a request for information for potential private sector participation projects in Prasa.
She said Prasa could not rely on government funding alone, opening the door for private investors to help modernise the passenger rail system and infrastructure.
Speaking at the inaugural National Transport Conference in Johannesburg on Monday, President Cyril Ramaphosa said rail is also essential for inclusive growth.
“An effective passenger rail system connects communities and provides dignity to working-class South Africans.
“Prasa has revived 37 of 40 priority passenger rail corridors and introduced more than 300 locally-manufactured train sets.
“We are targeting 116-million passenger journeys this financial year. Reliable passenger rail lowers commuting costs and improves access to work, education and healthcare,” Ramaphosa said.
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