Nelson Mandela Bay residents are being warned to prepare for dangerous and disruptive weather as a powerful cut-off low system bears down on the province, bringing torrential rain, gale-force winds and widespread flooding in the days ahead.
Between 100mm and 150mm of rain is expected over three days, accompanied by strong winds reaching 60km/h and gusts of up to 90km/h.
According to weather forecasts, the system, which differs from a typical cold front, is likely to result in prolonged and disruptive conditions across large parts of the Eastern Cape, including Nelson Mandela Bay.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) issued an orange level 6 warning for the metro.
Kouga and Koukamma have been issued with an orange level 8 warning.
According to the Nelson Mandela Bay disaster management centre, the warning will be in effect from 10am on Tuesday to midnight on Thursday.
In a statement, the municipality said it was in high-alert mode.
It has already implemented early warning systems for key stakeholders and role-players, including focal points, the NMBM Advisory Forum, ward councillors and the provincial disaster management centre.
Municipal spokesperson Sithembiso Soyaya said stormwater systems were being continuously maintained and monitored to reduce flooding risks.
“Stormwater management is a daily service delivery function of the municipality, not an isolated response to weather events,” Soyaya said.
“Across the metro, routine work is continuously undertaken to clean, maintain and monitor stormwater drains, inlets and drainage systems.
“This work is prioritised in known flood-prone areas, informed by historical patterns and operational assessments, to support system performance during periods of increased rainfall.
“With specific reference to Kariega, the municipality has maintained canal maintenance, including desilting and vegetation control, following the flooding incidents experienced two years ago.
“These interventions form part of a sustained approach to improving stormwater flow and reducing the risk of blockages.”
Scores of residents, particularly in Kariega, fled their homes after flooding in 2024.
Mayor Babalwa Lobishe said the municipality had been clearing drains that had not been maintained over the past three months to improve water flow.
“There are additional vehicles at the disaster office, ready to respond as the need arises,” she said.
“A majority of the drains have been cleaned.
“It is only those in the flood plains that might be affected.”
SAWS forecaster Kevin Ingram said the cut-off low system was expected to bring heavy rain, strong winds and potential flooding.
“The approaching weather system is a cut-off low, not a typical cold front,” Ingram said.
“It is an upper-air system typically associated with severe weather.
“Models indicate that we could receive between 100 and 150mm of rainfall over three days, along with strong winds of up to 60km/h, gusting to 90km/h.
“While the system itself is not abnormal, it is a strong one, with a low forming at the surface and driving stronger winds.”
He said a coastal enhancement effect could lead to heavy downpours in Nelson Mandela Bay and strong winds might contribute to infrastructure damage and hazardous sea conditions.
The city has seen several power pylons collapse due to rust and strong winds, leaving large parts of the metro in darkness in recent months.
Officials have urged residents to ensure proper drainage around their homes to prevent water build-up and to avoid lighting indoor fires without adequate ventilation.
Co-operative governance and traditional affairs MEC Zolile Williams said the municipalities most at risk included Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay, Great Kei, Kouga, Koukamma, Makana, Ndlambe, Ngqushwa and Sundays River Valley.
“We encourage our people to be vigilant and take the weather warnings seriously to save lives.
“They must move away from low-lying areas and places that have the potential to be waterlogged, as well as avoid crossing rivers and swollen streams, whether driving or on foot.
“We urge communities to reconsider their trips where possible.”
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