Sure, the outcome of the ANC KwaZulu-Natal conference throws a spanner in the works for President Cyril Ramaphosa as he seeks a second term at the helm of the party, but he remains on track for re-election.
What is at risk is his legacy.
What is becoming clear is that in his second term few of his fellow members of the party’s top six will be in his camp — the outcome is likely to echo the 2017 Nasrec conference, when no single slate emerged with an outright win.
Another “unity slate” of sorts, as it was dubbed in 2017.
Last weekend, Ramaphosa ally Sihle Zikalala was ousted as provincial chair of the ANC in KZN — a shock Ramaphosa’s allies did not see coming. Zikalala failed to even win election to the provincial executive committee.
Former ANC Youth League leader and MPL Siboniso Duma caused the upset. His campaign was only two months in the making, but it was clear from the regional elective conferences leading up to the weekend that Zikalala was vulnerable.
Ramaphosa’s first term has hardly been smooth. He had to contend with an openly hostile secretary-general, Ace Magashule, whose presence in the powerful post emboldened Ramaphosa’s many opponents in the ANC’s top leadership structure, the national executive committee.
Magashule’s suspension in May 2021, due to the corruption charges he faces, curbed the influence of the radical economic transformation faction and eased Ramaphosa’s ride to a second term.
Until Phala Phala erupted.
The president’s reticence to take the nation — and even the ANC — into his confidence about the foreign currency stashed at his Limpopo game farm, or about the burglary in which it was stolen, has rattled even his most ardent supporters. The saga certainly looks to have rattled the president himself — he missed a deadline to provide answers to the public protector’s questions about it and was on the verge of being subpoenaed when he finally complied.
Silence is also an answer, and not a very reassuring one when it comes to Phala Phala.
But this is not the most significant challenge Ramaphosa faces. Rather, it’s the growing rebellion against the very essence of his leadership campaign — renewal of the ANC.
Several provincial chapters of the party are pushing back against the “step aside” rule, which requires any leader facing criminal charges to step aside from their post in the government and the party.
It is this rule that Magashule defied before he was suspended.
A growing number of ANC leaders — some, such as Zandile Gumede in eThekwini, wield considerable clout — are facing criminal charges. At the weekend, the KZN region became the latest to call for the rule to be scrapped.
It’s not only Ramaphosa’s opponents who are fed up with the step aside policy.
For instance the ANC’s Limpopo chapter, which has openly backed Ramaphosa for a second term, argued that the rule in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair to those affected by it. This is because of the lengthy delays between charges being laid and cases being settled.
“How does one wait an entire year for a charge sheet to prepare their defence after already being charged, as in the case of Zandile Gumede?” asks one Ramaphosa sympathiser, who wishes to remain anonymous.
The Mpumalanga ANC has also called for a review of the policy. But whatever justification protracted legal processes might provide for doing so, scrapping the step aside rule will once again send a message that the ANC is soft on corruption and will bolster the perception that it harbours thieves who steal from the state at the expense of ordinary citizens.
It’s a tight spot for Ramaphosa.
While he might be a shoo-in for a second term, his renewal and anti-corruption agenda is on shaky ground. A major battle over step aside is set to be fought this week at the ANC’s policy conference. Unless Ramaphosa and his backers can come up with a palatable compromise, those who want it scrapped altogether might prevail.
Another problem for Ramaphosa is that his most loyal backers lack constituencies powerful enough to exert meaningful influence at such conferences — which is why such policies as the nationalisation of the Reserve Bank were adopted at Nasrec in 2017. The “Chris Hani cabal”, as his inner circle is dubbed, has limited support outside the Eastern Cape — a major reason that a clear pro-Ramaphosa slate is unlikely to triumph at the elective conference in December.
While Ramaphosa’s allies are punting Ronald Lamola or Oscar Mabuyane as deputy president, it is likely they will have to accept someone else, for example Paul Mashatile. They also want Gwede Mantashe to remain as national chair, but he might have to make way for Stan Mathabatha, the current Limpopo chair.
Ramaphosa and his backers have such a weak hand in the party that a second term with him at the helm might turn out to be as tepid and limping as his first.