We have hosted Brics three times since joining the bloc more than a decade ago. And as hosts we are not too shabby.
The first time, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane was our foreign affairs minister, Patrice Motsepe head of the business council and the Prince of Nkandla our big boss. They have all moved on.
Nkoana-Mashabane stood proud in Durban in 2013, telling business delegates to stop fighting over giblets and instead focus on the big picture and opportunities unleashed by Brics. She wasn’t wrong. Giblets may be a cheapish source of protein, but they are not the sum total of what’s possible.
Most people in decision-making positions when South Africa joined Brics are still around. They include Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, now responsible for youth affairs among other things, and Naledi Pandor, responsible for economic diplomacy.
Things will change now that Brics has been extended to include six new nations. If the rotation culture continues, we will wait a decade before we host the shindig again. It will move from the old members to the new ones, including Ethiopia and Egypt on the African continent.
Hosting is a great opportunity for a city like Addis Ababa, home to the AU. It will have to spruce up its tourism infrastructure to host the tens of thousands of delegates that attend.
South Africa appears to have lost something from the entry of Egypt and Ethiopia. Its voice will likely be diluted, and it can no longer claim exclusive status as the voice of Africa in the bloc, which is increasingly disrupting the world order that prevailed since World War 2.
This is just the beginning. Brics is likely to expand further in the near future. It would be detrimental to South Africa if countries such as Nigeria or Kenya were to join.
While Brics is growing, South Africa is in economic and political decline. It is a decline already at play when we joined Brics, and we have not arrested it.
We remain a minuscule extractor of opportunity from the Brics set-up. Our leaders dance to China’s music without being able to put fundamental, bankable propositions on the table.
Much is being made about investments accruing to South Africa, but there needs to be evidence of opportunities that would otherwise not have materialised.
In embracing Ethiopia and Egypt, China and others are looking beyond South Africa which, as a declining economy, is in broad terms merely a prop for the big players
China buys our minerals like platinum and iron ore that it would not get elsewhere. Brazil still sees us as a good market for its chickens and giblets. In embracing Ethiopia and Egypt, China and others are looking beyond South Africa which, as a declining economy, is in broad terms merely a prop for the big players.
Of course, the big players know what they are doing. With more than 100-million stomachs, the land of Haile Selassie is a good market for goods. China has already set up its stall in Addis, funding everything including the headquarters of the AU, where the automated voice in the lift once spoke Mandarin.
Chinese expansion is not without controversy. Its charity exposes weaker states to the takeover of strategic assets that fell in Beijing’s hands due to funding-collateral arrangements.
Pakistan learnt the hard way that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor exposed assets such as ports to Beijing’s control. Some African states have been enticed into China’s much-vaunted Belt and Road initiative, which has enhanced trade networks mostly in China’s favour.
There are headwinds guaranteed to make life more difficult for the global economy in the immediate future as China’s economy slows, albeit in the short term.
China has a terrible human rights record, and we do not know how this will play out on the global stage when its economy leads to domestic discord. There is the risk that it will become aggressive in its dealings with other states — as it often is with its citizens.
A strong element of China’s economic woes is tied to its property sector, which has been a dependable feature of its growth. This rings eerily as property chaos was at the centre of the global financial crisis of 2008 in the US, though there are fundamental differences between the two scenarios.
The US granted debt to people known as Ninjas: they had no income, no jobs, no assets, leading to a classic bubble.
In China, property contributes about 25% to economic performance. There is concern — mainly among US-based commentators — that worsening economic prospects could incite the Chinese government to become more brutal at home and aggressive abroad.
What would help countries such as South Africa would be a more hawkish approach as Brics takes off. The bloc has so far been nothing more than a counter-weight to US dominance.
A multi-polar world order is necessary, of course. What must be avoided is the replacement of one world bully by another.
At home, we do not have a government that can operate at this level, and we will remain passive facilitators as China rips through the economic carcass that is the African continent.
* Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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