The ANC shows no sign of comprehending what happened on May 29. It is still going through the various stages of grief. Meanwhile, an entity it formed, the government of national unity, has taken off with significant public and financial market support.
This week, business put its shoulder to the wheel by revamping a partnership with the government, with some researchers predicting the country will reach 3% growth in 2025. The actual number may be a pipe dream, but it is a necessary target nonetheless.
The GNU may be what President Cyril Ramaphosa wished for deep-down but could not state publicly. It is a quasi-realignment of the country’s politics and effectively creates a new band of parties and politicians that can even dare claim to be progressive.
On the other hand, the ANC’s traditional partners, the SACP and to an extent Cosatu, seem to be languishing. The SACP is opposed to the GNU, and Cosatu is planning a march on Monday, promising to bring the economy to a halt. The plans have upset big business.
The elections have managed to demystify South Africans, who are often as ideologically shapeless as an amoeba. The alt-right and alt-left appear to be singing from the same sheet. Parties that call themselves leftists share the same views on the GNU as Jacob Zuma’s MK Party.
This happens as the ANC has yet to meet to discuss or reflect on the seismic nature of the electoral outcome. The party is carrying on as though nothing happened. Those who held on to their public offices continue, alongside new colleagues.
Gauteng, one of the provinces without the Ramaphosa version of the GNU, is fascinating to watch. By leaving the DA out of the provincial cabinet, the ANC has taken on a new posture, showing that it is operating like a federal organisation when it has always defined itself as a unitary party.
The divergence between the outcomes of Luthuli House discussions and those at Walter Sisulu House, the provincial headquarters, gives us a glimpse of future moves in the ANC. It would be unlikely for Gauteng kingpin Panyaza Lesufi not to be counted among contenders for the ANC presidency in 2027. Ditto for Fikile Mbalula, the Luthuli House kingpin.
In recent years, the radical economic transformation (RET) faction of the ANC has lost steam due to the departure of many figures now associated with Zuma. Lesufi espouses a brand of populism that will soon sound more RET than the erstwhile RET itself.
The RET corner could be a strategic podium for him to occupy in tripartite alliance politics. There will soon be enough people who gravitate towards his style of politics and thinking.
The ANC in Gauteng may finally be a significant driver of discourse in the ANC. But however ANC politics shape the future, the party has to contend with the irreversible nature of electoral decline.
Where the danger is for South Africa is in the growth of the populist camp: the MKP and EFF combined. They enjoyed about a quarter of the votes cast in May.
There’s a risk the parties may face obstacles along the way. I worry, though, that the essence of populism and its easy solutions is the growth sector of our politics. It could be just a matter of time before someone else bottles up all the kinds of people that worship either Malema or Zuma.
With the ANC due to fare badly in the 2026 local elections, if May 29 is a credible indicator, a big split in the ANC before 2029 is not inconceivable.
Many of the smaller parties will be looking to consolidate by acquiring others or joining new coalitions. The DA itself will have to consider ways to grow, through acquisition, beyond its early-20s plateau.
Players such as Cosatu missed an opportunity more than a decade ago when their members voted for the federation to start a workers’ party.
Their leaders quashed the outcomes of a research project and chose to stick even harder with the ANC. As for the SACP, it does not have enough members to stage a 10-man protest or a thick ideology to influence politics significantly.
Speaking of thick ideologies, isn’t it precisely what the GNU lacks? Is it merely about economic growth or unity (unity of what?). The fuzziness of its agenda, while the South African underbelly is soft due to social ills like poverty and rising crime, will make it easy for a populist grouping to rise in the next few years.
The decline of the ANC has yet to show itself in the unbundling of its once cohesive nationalistic approach and attempts at social cohesion. It is important to kit out the GNU with a thick programme to ensure it is secure in the medium term, otherwise it will itself be as populist as the camp it purportedly opposes.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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