SA’s agricultural sector is now in what some would consider a relatively quiet period before we start the busy period again in a few weeks.
Farmers will soon be tilling the land for summer crops from mid-October.
Towards the end of November, the table grape industry will also start with its harvesting period, and there will be more activities from that period onwards.
The winter crop is the main crop now in season, with farmers starting the season in May.
Indications are that the winter crop is in reasonably good condition in some regions of SA, though the start of the season was challenging.
On September 26, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted SA’s 2024-25 winter crop by 2% from August to 2.72 million tonnes.
This placed the projected harvest only negligibly (0.04%) less than the previous season.
This winter crop encompasses wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupins.
The upward revisions in the CEC’s latest projections were mainly on wheat, canola and sweet lupins.
Much of this positive activity is in the Western Cape, a major province in the production of winter crops.
For example, about 73% of the winter wheat plantings for the 2024-25 season are in the Western Cape.
The area planted for barley, canola, and oats is much more prominent in the province as a winter rainfall region.
Other major winter crop-producing provinces are the Free State, Northern Cape, Limpopo, and North West, but the production in these provinces is mainly under irrigation.
If we zoom into wheat, the production is estimated at 1.94 million tonnes, up 2% from in September.
The upward revision was mainly in the Western Cape, benefiting from favourable weather conditions.
Importantly, it appears the excessive rains at the start of the season may not have caused much damage to the province’s wheat production, at least in most regions.
The provincial crop is projected to be up 2% from the 2023-24 season, at 1.1 million tonnes of the national expected wheat harvest of 1.94 million tonnes.
Still, yearly, the current national wheat crop of 1.94 million tonnes is down 5% from the previous season, indicating lower production outside the Western Cape.
The production in other provinces is down notably from the previous season.
We suspect the midsummer drought has weighed on the production in the Free State, Limpopo and Northern Cape provinces.
Farmers were financially constrained after they lost their summer crop.
Thus, SA will remain a net wheat importer in the 2024-25 marketing year.
Fortunately, there are ample global wheat supplies and prices have remained broadly contained.
The International Grains Council forecasts 2024-25 global wheat production at 798 million tonnes, up 0.4% year-on-year.
The improved global wheat production prospects have kept global wheat prices at a moderate level, thus benefiting consumers and importing countries such as SA.
Aside from wheat, barley production prospects remain positive annually, though down on a monthly revision.
The CEC lowered the barley harvest prospect by 4% from August to 398,000 tonnes.
Still, this is 6% higher than the 2023-24 season.
With the barley plantings down 7% year-on-year, at an estimated 100,000 hectares, the improved annual harvest prospects are supported by better yield prospects in some regions of the Western Cape.
The 2024-25 canola production is forecast at 294,000 tonnes.
This is the largest harvest on record, up 25% year-on-year.
An expansion in the area underpins the improvement planted and prospects for better yields.
In our recent visit to the Western Cape, the canola plantings were visibly in good condition in most regions of the province.
These figures confirm our anticipation that the province will have a decent canola crop.
Also worth highlighting is that SA’s 2024-25 oats production could increase 67% year-on-year to 68,000 tonnes according to CEC.
This significant production results from a notable increase in the planted area and positive yield prospects.
We see similar improvements in sweet lupins, where production is estimated at 19,000 tonnes, up by 20% year-on-year.
The winter crop season is shaping slightly better than the challenging summer crop season.
Admittedly, we are early in the season, and a lot could change depending on the weather conditions in the coming months.
But the figures we have at this point provide some comfort about the size of the supplies.
Where production prospects are down notably, the large global wheat production will provide a much-needed cushion to the domestic wheat processors and food companies.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics. His latest book is ‘A Country of Two Agricultures’.
HeraldLIVE
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