“Beware the ides of March” was a warning from a soothsayer to Julius Caesar in a Shakespeare play, which was my matric setwork book, in combination with Wuthering Heights.
Kate Bush was incidentally the flavour of the month in my matric year, with a hit single of the same title.
Quite strange that many years later I would be uttering similar words, but in my capacity as a weatherman.
Some might say a soothsayer and a weatherman have a lot in common — I have learnt to take that one on the chin.
March 1981 was for me unforgettable, as our young “gang” with our 50cc motorbikes had tonnes of fun riding around taking pics of all the damage caused by the flood, especially of the open area between Parsons Hill and Perridgevale, which was washed down Kipling Road and almost landed up in the grounds of SA Bottling.
At the bend of Heythorp Drive, between Linkside and Mill Park, part of the road next to the Port Elizabeth Golf Course was washed away into the valley.
The bridge at Kragga Kamma interchange was also not spared, suffering the same fate years later in 2006.
Alas, with all the “highly protected” (by some uninformed residents) alien vegetation, the chance of it happening again is good.
Unfortunately, as it happened in the apartheid era, not much footage was taken of the hardest-hit areas, such as the townships and informal settlements.
I do, however, have some dramatic footage of a helicopter and boat rescue taking place in the Chatty area by the now retired Herald photographer Colin Urquhart, for which he received an award.
As I have foretold many times before, the intermediary seasons in our area are the most prone to the perfect cut-off low situation, leading to flooding and destruction.
On the positive side, it is the time of year that our dams are most likely to overflow.
As my old colleague Pete Lumb always said, the seasons aren’t sure if they are summer or winter, thus resulting in this confused weather that brings extreme rainfall. Not really, but a romantic explanation.
Us older residents will remember that in 1981, at the beginning of autumn, we had the worst flood in living history since the 1968 event which took place in September, the beginning of spring.
One cannot be a soothsayer and base predictions on the alignment of the stars or the lie of the bones that have just been thrown but must base predications on science and statistics.
The seasonal forecast is not predicting an above-average autumn, so the models are not favouring much chance of a severe event.
However, the statistics speak for themselves.
We are long overdue for a flood of any proportion, be it notable or destructive.
Though we have maintained the highest number of low rainfall records during this century than in the entire previous one, 2025 has started off promising, with both January and February yielding well above average rainfall, with roughly 150mm measured to date, as opposed to the average for the two months of just over 70mm (33mm for January and 39mm for February).
Maybe this is the turn of the tide, who knows?
Considering we have a rich history of flooding within the boundaries of our metro, we would be naive to think that even with climate change the rain has suddenly dried up.
It is not a question of predicting a flood in the next few years but knowing that scientifically and statistically it has a high likelihood of occurring.
Informal housing/settlements have encroached on flood lines and are even set up in old river causeways.
In addition, there are no stormwater drains in those areas and it is a disaster waiting to happen.
This week in history:
1963: Reports of flooding in various parts of the Eastern Cape
Dam levels
73.78% down from 74.55% the previous week. Impofu was down slightly at 55.78%
Weather safety tips:
Prevention is always better than cure. Always camp or build an informal dwelling away from a river, and on high ground.
Now on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter: WEATHER GURU
Email: info@wgawx.co.za with feedback or requests
The Herald
Scientifically and statistically we’re long overdue for a notable flood
Image: COLIN URQUHART/THE HERALD
“Beware the ides of March” was a warning from a soothsayer to Julius Caesar in a Shakespeare play, which was my matric setwork book, in combination with Wuthering Heights.
Kate Bush was incidentally the flavour of the month in my matric year, with a hit single of the same title.
Quite strange that many years later I would be uttering similar words, but in my capacity as a weatherman.
Some might say a soothsayer and a weatherman have a lot in common — I have learnt to take that one on the chin.
March 1981 was for me unforgettable, as our young “gang” with our 50cc motorbikes had tonnes of fun riding around taking pics of all the damage caused by the flood, especially of the open area between Parsons Hill and Perridgevale, which was washed down Kipling Road and almost landed up in the grounds of SA Bottling.
At the bend of Heythorp Drive, between Linkside and Mill Park, part of the road next to the Port Elizabeth Golf Course was washed away into the valley.
The bridge at Kragga Kamma interchange was also not spared, suffering the same fate years later in 2006.
Alas, with all the “highly protected” (by some uninformed residents) alien vegetation, the chance of it happening again is good.
Unfortunately, as it happened in the apartheid era, not much footage was taken of the hardest-hit areas, such as the townships and informal settlements.
I do, however, have some dramatic footage of a helicopter and boat rescue taking place in the Chatty area by the now retired Herald photographer Colin Urquhart, for which he received an award.
As I have foretold many times before, the intermediary seasons in our area are the most prone to the perfect cut-off low situation, leading to flooding and destruction.
On the positive side, it is the time of year that our dams are most likely to overflow.
As my old colleague Pete Lumb always said, the seasons aren’t sure if they are summer or winter, thus resulting in this confused weather that brings extreme rainfall. Not really, but a romantic explanation.
Us older residents will remember that in 1981, at the beginning of autumn, we had the worst flood in living history since the 1968 event which took place in September, the beginning of spring.
One cannot be a soothsayer and base predictions on the alignment of the stars or the lie of the bones that have just been thrown but must base predications on science and statistics.
The seasonal forecast is not predicting an above-average autumn, so the models are not favouring much chance of a severe event.
However, the statistics speak for themselves.
We are long overdue for a flood of any proportion, be it notable or destructive.
Though we have maintained the highest number of low rainfall records during this century than in the entire previous one, 2025 has started off promising, with both January and February yielding well above average rainfall, with roughly 150mm measured to date, as opposed to the average for the two months of just over 70mm (33mm for January and 39mm for February).
Maybe this is the turn of the tide, who knows?
Considering we have a rich history of flooding within the boundaries of our metro, we would be naive to think that even with climate change the rain has suddenly dried up.
It is not a question of predicting a flood in the next few years but knowing that scientifically and statistically it has a high likelihood of occurring.
Informal housing/settlements have encroached on flood lines and are even set up in old river causeways.
In addition, there are no stormwater drains in those areas and it is a disaster waiting to happen.
This week in history:
1963: Reports of flooding in various parts of the Eastern Cape
Dam levels
73.78% down from 74.55% the previous week. Impofu was down slightly at 55.78%
Weather safety tips:
Prevention is always better than cure. Always camp or build an informal dwelling away from a river, and on high ground.
Now on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter: WEATHER GURU
Email: info@wgawx.co.za with feedback or requests
The Herald
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