Over the weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping correctly remarked that there are no winners in tariff wars.
The full consequences of the unfolding tariff war are yet to be clear on a global growth scale, but they are certainly on the downside.
However, a few countries may emerge as winners from a sectoral perspective.
Brazil and Argentina are evolving as the leading agricultural exporters to China, as US farmers face higher retaliatory tariffs in China.
The Financial Times published an article at the weekend that explains what is unfolding in just these few months.
“Brazil’s beef sales to China climbed a third in the first quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier, while Chinese imports of its poultry increased 19% year on year in March, according to local trade associations,” it said.
“Meanwhile, foreign demand has seen Brazilian soybeans trading at a $1.15 [R21.70] premium to their US counterparts on global markets, having sold at a 25-cent discount only in January.”
This is not new. China started shifting to Latin America after the first trade friction with the US during Trump’s first term.
For example, in 2024, China’s agricultural imports from the Western countries (the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the EU) fell by 12.3% year on year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China.
This decline was replaced by the surge in agricultural imports from the Latin American countries.
You see, I think more about China in agriculture because the country is a dominant player in global trade.
In 2023, China was a leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of global farm imports, totalling more than $200bn (R3.78-trillion) .
The leading suppliers of agricultural products to China in 2023 were Brazil, the US, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands and Malaysia.
The US position will likely decline further this year.
Reflecting on the current shifts in China’s agricultural imports and the dominance of Latin America has partly motivated us to argue that SA should also position itself among the key suppliers of farm products to China.
SA remains the only African country in China’s top 30 agricultural suppliers, ranked 28 in 2023.
Still, SA remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% ($979m, or R18.5bn) of China’s agricultural imports of $218bn (R4.12-trillion) in 2023.
The agricultural products SA generally exports to China include a variety of fruit, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans and wool.
However, there is room for SA to form a more ambitious agricultural export strategy for China.
Given this export possibility and China’s efforts to diversify its agricultural suppliers, it is key that the South African message in engagements with the Chinese authorities should be firmer and more persuasive in promoting agricultural exports.
SA has an agricultural surplus yearly, exporting about half of its annual production.
In 2024, SA’s agricultural exports amounted to a record $13.7bn (R259.3bn).
Indeed, this is nowhere close to the amount of money China spends annually importing agricultural products from the world, a staggering $218bn (R4.12-trillion).
SA is not currently deeply involved in China’s agriculture, among other things, because of the higher import tariffs and some phytosanitary constraints on various products.
Countries that have enjoyed significant growth in agricultural exports to China, such as Chile, Peru and Australia, face far lower tariffs relative to SA.
Had SA had an equal tariff level as these countries in the Chinese market and minimal phytosanitary barriers, it would have formed a much more notable share of the Chinese agricultural market.
Thus, South African authorities must raise these issues with China and cement the country as one of the major exporters to China.
With China focused on trade matters nowadays, SA must press it to open up the market and strengthen agricultural trade with our country.
I think this should be a topic of conversation in engagements with Chinese authorities.
The Brazilian and Argentinian farmers cannot be the only winners in this challenging time; SA’s agriculture must be part of this global story.
As all the engagements with China continue, we should consistently maintain warm relations with the traditional export markets of SA, such as the EU, broader Africa, the Americas and the Middle East, among other places.
The Chinese involvement is not a replacement but an addition to our agricultural export markets.
• Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz)
The Herald
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