WEATHER GURU | Like the stock market, weather also subject to shifts and changes

If you are an avid news follower and have been watching Fox News, you will see an indicator in the bottom right-hand corner which constantly changes. This denotes the stock market index and performance. Rapid and sometimes drastic changes are seen during Trump’s speeches, especially when he mentions changes in tariffs or new investments in the economy.

The stock market reacts differently to different announcements, either positively or negatively.

Commentators, business analysts and the investor are thus constantly trying to forecast the best return on their investments on the short, medium and long-term.

Naturally being an economy of scale, anything that effects the US economy has a ripple and sometimes major effect on the world economy.

Weather is no different, with changes and shifts in the weather today changing the outlook for the future.

Naturally changes today will be amplified in the future. Much like when swaying a rope, with one end unattached.

Every month I watch the seasonal forecast for an indication of what the future holds, especially in so far as rainfall is concerned.

My fascia boards and the like are in dire need of a cleaning with the high-pressure washer, and I am waiting for my water tanks to be filled to the rim before I undertake this task

The forecast throughout the drought was relatively consistent and fairly accurate, with constant forecasts of below average rainfall. We did, however, have isolated heavy rainfall that saved our bacon.

Scientifically we are not at the stage where we can predict singular events in the future.

Relating these forecasts throughout the drought gave me the title of the “Prophet of Doom”, not only by the public, but also in disaster management meetings. The ex-mayor still refers to me as such (tongue in cheek) when he speaks about weather-related matters.

This year started with some amazing rainfall figures, last seen in 2005. However, the seasonal forecast maintained a less than favourable outlook that has been getting worse as the year progresses.

The rest of autumn, right through to winter and spring, is forecast to have lower than normal rainfall for our region.

I am secretly hoping that this forecast has gone awry and that we will see it change as we approach our rainy season.

This is highly possible with all the data woes that our weather service experienced in January, with a cyber-hack, from which it has not fully recovered.

The opposite is true over the summer rainfall regions up north, with widespread flooding of areas around the Vaal and Orange rivers and beyond.,

My main concern here is if farmers will be able to prepare their lands for winter crops, especially potatoes. We all know what happened to the price last year, almost hitting R200 a pocket.

After a summer-like weekend weather-wise two weeks ago, we had to endure real wintry conditions the next weekend, with windy conditions and minimum temperatures dropping to 11C and maximums not rising above 18C. Then it was back to a maximum of close to 30C on Monday as we returned to work.

As the old people always say, this is flu weather, so dress warmly and stay indoors out of the cold.

Incidentally, medical experts claim that contrary to popular belief, temperature has nothing to do with the flu virus. It’s because we spend more time indoors that the virus spreads more easily.

There are even posts on social media of some far northern hemisphere mothers leaving their babies outside for short periods to get them accustomed to the cold. A bit cruel, one could say.

With the fast approach to winter, these shorter days also mean that we tend to hibernate more in front of the TV or in bed with a good book.

I think that we will be spending quite a bit of time indoors this winter, with both minimum and maximum temperatures forecast to be lower than normal along our coastal belt and adjacent interior.

It would thus be wise to top up on multivitamins and get a flu jab to stave off those dreaded flu viruses.

I believe in a good Scotch to keep those germs away, with a healthy tot of Old Brown Sherry to warm the cockles of one’s heart. Add to that a hearty bowl of soup with home-made bread and you have the perfect recipe to stave off those winter blues.

This week in history:

1977: Floods and strong winds cause millions of rand damage over our metro, with snow reported from Graaff-Reinet

Dam Levels:

70.88% slightly up from the previous weeks 70.80%'. Impofu was slightly down to 53.49%

Weather Safety Tips:

Roof gutters blocked with leaves cannot only lead to water damage but are also a fire hazard if they are dry. Besides they are not good for rainfall harvesting. Either install gutter leaf guards or regularly clean gutters.

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