At the end of April, we completed SA’s 2024/2025 marketing year for maize.
This marketing year corresponds with the 2023/2024 production season, which was challenged by the midsummer drought and led to the 22% decline in SA’s maize harvest to 12.85-million tonnes.
The big help in that season came from the gains of the previous ones.
For example, the season started with 2.4-million tonnes of opening/carryover stocks from the past season, ultimately boosting the available maize supplies in the country.
This added to the harvest of 12.85-million tonnes. These overall maize supplies were against the domestic needs of 11.6-million tonnes, leaving the country with substantial maize for exports.
The available exports were of great help to the Southern Africa region, which was severely hit by the drought.
For example, Zimbabwe lost 60% of its maize crop, Zambia lost half of its crop, and other neighbouring countries experienced significant losses.
This meant that there was increased reliance on SA.
Thankfully, SA was better placed to help export more maize.
At the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year in April 2025, SA had exported 2.2-million tonnes, substantially well above the long-term average levels.
About 66% of these exports were white maize and 34% were yellow maize.
Several countries benefited from these exports, especially in Southern Africa.
But no country benefited more than Zimbabwe, which accounted for 57% of SA’s maize exports between May 2024 and April 2025, or about 1.3-million tonnes of white and yellow maize.
SA was exporting to the southern African region, so it had to import to supplement supplies, mainly in the coastal areas.
However, another factor behind the increase in imports was the price competitiveness of imports.
SA ended the 2024/2025 season with 938.116 tonnes of maize imports, which mainly originated in Argentina, Brazil and the US.
Still, when one accounts for these imports and exports of 2.2-million tonnes, it remains clear that SA was a net exporter of maize in the 2024/2025 season.
SA did not experience a massive decline in maize production as its neighbouring countries did, in part because of the improved seed cultivars and arguably better farming methods.
It is not because of irrigation, as the area of maize production under irrigation in SA is roughly 10% of the 2.5-million hectares the country plants.
This again speaks to the issue I have raised elsewhere about the need for African countries to embrace improved seed cultivars and agrochemicals to boost farm output.
Improved agricultural technologies would also help mitigate the climate crisis, as SA remains a net exporter despite intense drought.
We are now in the 2025/2026 marketing year, which started this month, and corresponds with the 2024/2025 production season.
This time around, the maize production prospects are far more favourable.
SA’s 2024/2025 maize harvest is estimated at 14.66-million tonnes, up 14% year on year, primarily benefiting from expected annual yield improvements.
And yes, this crop is well above the long-term average.
Importantly, these forecasts are well above SA’s annual maize needs of just under 12-million tonnes, which implies that SA will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
In the coming months, you will likely read about maize quality issues caused by the excessive rains in April, but I suspect this will not be a widespread challenge and will unlikely change the overall size of the harvest.
We will also likely see a slow pace in harvest activity compared with past years because of the late start of the season.
Also worth noting is that we continue to read about the improvement in maize production in the regions.
For example, Zimbabwean farmers likely planted 1.7-million hectares of maize this year, slightly lower than last year, but decent.
We will know more about the yields in the coming weeks and months.
Still, this year’s improved weather conditions across Southern Africa mean the season will improve.
The core point is that while SA was hit by the drought last year, the country could export more than two-million tonnes of maize.
These exports helped cushion countries like Zimbabwe from the food security crisis.
• Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA
The Herald
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