US President Donald Trump has left just a sliver of light in his “final word” letter to President Cyril Ramaphosa informing him that he will impose a brutal 30% duty on all SA goods arriving in the US from August 1.
News of what Trump claims is a final decision has tipped the cold water of comprehension that we have less than three weeks to save our economy from a truly menacing predicament. Ramaphosa has called for industry to urgently diversify their markets, which is about as useful as trying to douse a house fire with a bottle of beer. Our trade profile is chiselled in stone and will take decades to meaningfully change.
But still we are told our trade people are talking to their trade people — no names and no idea of how senior our contacts might be, so that is no real comfort. These decisions are going to be made by people close to Trump, and as we know Trump likes a big win. What do we still have?
The opening Trump left was routine — if we or any other national leaders receiving more or less the same letter this week have anything to offer before the deadline, then the Americans will talk.
Three weeks. The National Treasury is quickly going to model the economic effects of a 30% tariff, but you have to ask why it doesn’t already have that modelled. Trump first announced the increase on April 2 and we have merely been living through an extension.
The fact is that of almost all our traditional trading partners, the Americans were probably the most starry-eyed — and for the longest time — about the defeat of apartheid and the rise of Nelson Mandela.
Our diplomatic effort in Washington was so run down by the Biden term that we now have literally no-one on the ground to fight our corner.
We rode that wave through Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama, Trump’s first term and Joe Biden, who was possibly the ultimate pushover.
It made us lazy and we took them for granted. Our diplomatic effort in Washington was so run down by the Biden term that we now have literally no-one on the ground to fight our corner. We have no special access to Trump or his people. Every SA group and their dog goes to Washington now and talks to at least someone in the White House.
We tried hard early on. Franklin Sonn and Barbara Masekela were serious people. During the Obama years Ebrahim Rasool barely had to try. But, especially since 2020, our ambassadorial postings have been lamentable. Former Cape Town mayor Nomaindia Mfeketo was ineffective and ill, so Ndumiso Ntshinga was hauled out of retirement to fill in for her. And we all know how Rasool fared at his second attempt.
Biden made us particularly lazy. His chief of staff, Jeff Zients, is married to the daughter of one of our wealthiest families. All we had to do to get the president’s attention was to call Jeff, while our diplomats were able to content themselves with talking to the black caucus in the US Congress and bill the department of international relations & co-operation back home for all the arduous lunches and dinners.
Now, at our time of greatest need we have literally no-one in Washington. After Rasool was asked to leave the US earlier this year Ramaphosa named Mcebisi Jonas as his special envoy to the US, but that was more than 80 days ago and as far as we know he has not once set foot in the US. Yet he is, we’re assured, working hard behind the scenes. Pull the other one.
But Jonas didn’t appoint himself. Ramaphosa did, and while the dire situation we are in now may be the fault of a wilfully destructive White House, Ramaphosa’s ability to “do deals”, as he likes to think of it, is being cruelly exposed as the humbug of a negligent commander.
• Bruce is a former editor of Business Day and the Financial Mail.
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