Worldwide, the weather has been topsy-turvy, with the UK and swathes of Europe sweltering under an unbearable heatwave and across the Atlantic in the US, the tragic floods in Texas.
In SA, the Western Cape experienced winter flooding, while in the Bay the forecast rain was blown away by gale-force winds.
Though we had 60mm-plus in the Bay on June 9/10, I am still waiting for that three-day showery winter rain to fill my water tanks.
Winter is also the time of the year that our dams usually get replenished.
Dam levels are still healthy at just under 70%, but usage generally increases towards summer, with minimal inflow. Going into summer with a healthy reserve is always first prize.
Picking up the pieces after that big blow on Sunday, everyone started moaning about the cold.
Though we get our strongest winds during the winter months, due to deep low-pressure systems coming closer to the coast, on average winter is the calmest time of the year, with December being the windiest.
This week yielded some minimum temperatures below 5ºC and we should expect a total of 10 on average before winter is over. So don’t put away those winter woollies just yet.
Halfway through winter, we are touching on only three days under 5ºC and we need quite a few more to make average.
If we do not, it could influence the overall average temperature for winter 2025 in the Bay.
Naturally there are those who will pin this on climate change, but one season’s records do not make a basis for climate change.
Regarding climate change, though the Texas flooding is considered a one in 500 to a one in 1,000-year flood, a similar event occurred in 1987.
Similar incidents so close to each other must speak loudly to the concept of climate change.
Reporters are pointing to limitations of disaster forecasting under the climate change crisis, especially as a similar disaster occurred on the banks of the Guadalupe river with campers in 1987 and again this time around with the young girls attending a camp at Camp Mystic.
Though not reported extensively in SA, the largest tragedy of the Texas event was the 27-plus fatalities, mostly young girls under 10, at the camp.
Besides blaming climate change, cut funding, staff shortages and limited modern resources of the National Weather Service (NWS), this has turned into a political issue, with opposition parties laying blame at the door of the current administration.
This is unfair, as forecasters and models take all factors into account, and their forecasts are only scientific predictions of what is most likely to occur.
Warnings are always carefully evaluated to ensure that no unnecessary panic is caused and there is no cry-wolf scenario in the long term.
There are strict rules determined by the World Meteorological Organisation as to when watches and warnings can be issued and the NWS of the region abided by these rules.
They brought in extra forecasters and were overstaffed at the time leading up to and during the event.
It must also be noted that other hydrological phenomenon come into play in times of flooding of which forecasters do not always have knowledge.
It is sad that rival parties vie for political points by feeding off such a tragedy.
Uninformed armchair critics also climbed into the fray with their negative comments, par for the course on social media.
Weather and any other warnings can only be effective if the public heeds these warnings.
As Dr Imtiaz Sooliman of Gift of the Givers once related to me, people only heed warnings when the floodwater or fire is on their doorstep.
This is a worldwide phenomenon and can be attributed to human nature.
In SA this year alone, we have seen far too many tragedies arising from the irresponsible crossing of flooded low-water bridges, though advisories and warnings were sent out.
Modern technology and the maintenance thereof for forecasting and warning the public is costly and unfortunately after such an event a lot of money is bandied about.
However, as soon as the tragedy fades from memory, so does the will to finance preventive measures to lessen the impact of future events.
The years 1968, 1981 and 2006 in our metro are mere dates for many people and a distant memory for others.
What are we doing to reduce the effects of such floods, or will we continue to stick our heads in the sand and pretend that it will not happen again?
Then, after the fact, blame it on climate change, insufficient resources or some or other obscene reason.
That will be too late.
Let Texas be a lesson to us to prepare for and minimise the impact of such an event.
This week in history:
1886: 30cm of snow is recorded in Graaff-Reinet.
Dam levels
69.29% slightly down from the previous week’s 69.55%.
Impofu down to 50.83%.
Weather safety tips:
Weather warnings and watches are there to prevent loss of life and damage to property. It is in your interest to heed these warning and take the necessary precautions that are sent out with them.
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Email: info@wgawx.co.za with feedback or requests
The Herald
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