SA’s maize industry is export-orientated. Over the past five years, the country has exported roughly three million tonnes annually.
One of its largest markets is Zimbabwe, typically accounting for about 18% of annual exports.
But in the near-term, we may see these exports declining. There is a policy change that may lead to such an eventuality.
The Zimbabwean government has placed a ban on its imports of maize.
This comes on the back of improved domestic production in the country, leading the regulators to believe that, at least for the near-term, there are sufficient supplies and no need for imports.
This is also an effort to protect the farmers that the government has supported with inputs at the start of the season.
While we recognise the logic of the Zimbabwean policymakers, we generally prefer minimal interference in agricultural markets, as intervention may disrupt the efficient allocation of scarce resources or functioning of the market.
We believe that in times of abundant harvests, farmers and agribusinesses must be allowed to export and benefit from the global market.
In times of droughts or floods, trade must still be allowed.
Indeed, there may be short-term economic pain for consumers through higher prices in deficit years when imports are needed, but this induces farmers to plant more in the succeeding seasons.
The more immediate unintended consequence of Zimbabwe’s ban is a limited price benefit to consumers, as the ban might artificially increase the domestic price by restricting more competitively priced imports from SA and other origins.
It is also worth highlighting that Zimbabwe may not keep the ban for long.
We are doubtful that the country has sufficient maize supplies for the entire marketing year.
We believe there may be a need for maize imports later in the season.
This is because Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize production is projected at 1.3 million tonnes, according to data from the Pretoria-based unit of the US department of agriculture (USDA).
This is just more than twice the output from the previous season, which was a drought period.
Still, it is not sufficient to cover the country’s annual needs of about 2.0 million tonnes, potentially leaving an import gap of about 700,000 tonnes.
When Zimbabwe finally returns to the import market, SA may again be one of the suppliers.
In the last marketing year, SA supplied nearly all of Zimbabwe’s maize imports.
However, in the 2025-26 marketing year, there may be some changes, with Zambia regaining its net exporter status as it expects a bumper harvest of 3.66 million tonnes.
This far surpasses Zambia’s maize consumption of 2.8 million tonnes per annum.
There will be competition in the market, with Zambia potentially regaining a notable share in the Zimbabwean market, while SA will also likely remain a major supplier.
SA forecasts its domestic maize harvest at 15.80 million tonnes, which is 23% higher than the previous 2023-24 season’s crop.
These forecasts are well above SA’s annual maize needs of about 12.00 million tonnes, implying SA will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
For SA’s maize exporters, the message is that Zimbabwe may not be a conducive market in the near-term, as it has ample domestic supplies.
This absence of Zimbabwe in the near-term also implies that the domestic maize prices may remain under pressure for some time.
However, later in the season, Zimbabwe may return to the market and import maize, which will be an upward support to the maize prices.
The USDA forecasts suggest that the expected crop is insufficient to meet annual consumption, and there may be a need to import about 700,000 tonnes of maize to support the domestic needs.
This figure, however, remains tentative, as it remains hard to assess the scale of Zimbabwe’s maize production by the smallholder farmers.
Thus, it may be that the import need is less than we anticipate.
Still, we believe imports may be required later in the season.
At such time, SA may be ready and able to supply the volume Zimbabwe needs.
For the near-term, SA’s maize exports will likely be to the Far East markets and the broader Southern Africa region.
• Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA. He is the author of three books, The Uncomfortable Truth About South Africa’s Agriculture (2025), A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, The Challenges, The Solutions (2023), and Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture (2020).
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.