The pertinent question on everyone’s lips in Nelson Mandela Bay and surrounds is “when are we going to get some decent rain?”
This most especially for the avid gardener and rainwater harvester who have been affected by a particularly dry late winter and spring.
Despite a good start to 2025, by the end of October the annual total rainfall of 430mm is well short of the 540mm we should have received.
Local dam levels have dropped below the 60% mark for the first time since October 2023, setting off a few alarm bells at City Hall, hence the metro slowly starting its water awareness campaign.
This has been sparked not only by the drop in dam levels, but also because of bad winter rainfall season, and the upcoming summer season is forecast to be below normal.
There are generally three schools of thought on our water situation, and especially our ongoing water crisis in the region.
Might I add that we are not alone in this dilemma, as there is always some part of the country that is experiencing a crisis at some point or the other.
The Herald reported this week that Garden Route towns are going to introduce water restrictions due to declining dam levels, fuelled by low rainfalls and a dismal summer rainfall forecast.
Unfortunately, there are far too few realists or alarmists, as some might call us, that are aware of all the relevant facts and are concerned about the metro and our country’s water security.
We have far too many that are totally unaware or simply don’t care about the water situation.
If they open the tap and there is water, they are happy.
If it runs out, then the supermarket has plenty of water.
And off course we have the most vocal group, the conspiracy theorists and armchair professionals, who claim there will never be a crisis as water is abundant from other sources and it is the government and council’s way of extorting money from citizens to line their own pockets.
Unfortunately, the only factor that trumps all these theories is the amount of rain that falls from the heavens.
Without favourable rainfall, aquifers cannot rejuvenate as dropping ground water levels affect extraction from boreholes and other groundwater resources.
Without adequate reserves in local dams, pressure is put on these other sources, boreholes and water from other regions.
Though our metro and the department of water & sanitation have done wonders in augmenting our water supply, one must ask the question: Did we just get a temporary reprieve in 2023, are we still in a drought situation, is this the start of another drought or is this the new normal?
If we take it that 2023 was the only year since 2015 that yielded an above normal rainfall figure, then meteorologically, the drought has never ended.
Option two is that this is the new normal.
Historically, our regional drought from 1982 to 1999 (18 years) yielded only one year above normal and one year equal to normal rainfall.
If we consider this drought started post 2015, then it could continue well into the next decade.
Increased water demand and climate change is also not helping the situation.
In essence, our supply has been augmented by about 210 megalitres per day (ML/D) from the Nooitgedacht (Gariep) scheme and 10ML/D from the Coegakop aquifer.
This is great if Gariep is at a favourable level and the aquifer is fully recharged.
In the period 2012 to 2015, the Free State was in the grip of a drought, and one wonders if the allocation to the metro would be the same should the Gariep not be at a favourable level.
As with everything in life, there are two sides to every story and on the flip side of this is water usage.
The metro claims that 280ML/D is fair consumption, but we are touching on close to 350ML/D and we are not even in the height of summer and have not had the influx of holidaymakers to the region.
I highlight the word region, as all the holiday towns such as St Francis, Jeffreys, Oyster Bay and surrounds’ water supply is from our local dams.
Furthermore, avid gardeners who have water tanks will be forced to use municipal water to save their prized petunias, hence further increasing demand.
One might think that in the short-term we have a secure water supply, but in the long-term exponential population growth, urbanisation and growing industrial activities will further increase consumption and put more demand on the supply.
The simple economic model of supply and demand then comes into play and one wonders if water will become as unaffordable as electricity is now for many.
Addressing water leaks, innovative water recycling and increasing localised water harvesting can go a long way to stave off a possible disaster where we would have to queue for water and see our industries affected.
Educating and re-aligning the attitudes of the public to be water smart is a momentous task and will take a lot of resources to achieve.
This week in history:
2007: Unseasonal cold resulted in four deaths in Gqeberha and two in East London.
Dam levels
57.09%, slightly down from previous week’s 58.16%.
Impofu slightly down to 46.06%.
Weather safety tips:
With hot dry conditions persisting, avoid leaving heaps of cut vegetation in piles as when dry, it can become a serious fire hazard. Dispose of as soon as possible.
Now on Facebook, Instagram, and X: @WeatherGuruEC
The Herald
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.