While the north-eastern areas of our country, such as Limpopo, have been receiving record rainfall figures, according to the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the south-eastern parts of the country, and most especially the Garden Route, are in a definite dry spell.
With an above-normal rainfall forecast for the summer rainfall areas, unfortunately the south coast is not expected to receive normal rainfall.
According to the long-range forecast issued by SAWS, though the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral state, it is predicted to move into a weak La Niña state within the next month if current predictions are realised.
The summer rainfall over the eastern interior is good news for farmers there, but also increases the likelihood of flooding and extreme events in those regions. This has already occurred in Gauteng and surrounds.
In the Free State we have even seen some spectacular and scary hail events, where hail the size of golf balls was reported and posted on social media.
Any promise of good rain along the south coast is unfortunately not forecast.
Besides all the concerns about potable water and effects on agriculture and industry, we must not forget that this dry spell has a very real effect on vegetation as far as veld fires are concerned.
When taking a drive along Marine Drive, I am often reminded of the days of my youth when the area was covered in a dense forest of wattles, often leading to fires which kept the fire department busy for days on end.
If we cast our minds back to December 2022, we will remember the devastating fires in and around the metro that were basically out of control. Most of these fires were in areas heavily infested with alien vegetation.
Firefighters had their hands full in preventing these fires spreading into residential areas.
Naturally days with a high fire danger index (FDI) are the perfect recipe for disaster.
An aggravating factor is a prolonged dry winter season, followed by a hot dry summer season.
Among other things, the rotting process of leaves that have fallen is delayed due to the lack of moisture.
Windy conditions, as we have had recently, increase the number of dry twigs and branches (kindling) falling around wooded areas.
Over the last few weeks fires have started flaring up along the roadside and in wooded areas.
Although it has been nothing compared to 2022, firefighters are being kept busy.
Most of the forecast rain generally falls flat, depriving the firefighters of some relief.
As we have no control over nature and what the weather does, there are always questions as to what we can do to prevent the outbreak and rapid spreading of these fires.
Controlling alien vegetation is the first prize. That is from both the government’s and the landowner’s side.
The enforcement of these laws must be a priority. Too many vacant plots throughout the metro are overgrown with alien vegetation and it does not seem that action is taken against these errant landowners.
Our municipality is also a culprit in many instances as the Baakens and various vacant municipal properties are basically nurseries for wattles and other alien trees.
Dealing with litigation of agricultural and forestry fires, I find that many fires are caused by controlled burning gone wrong when official weather forecasts are not consulted.
No matter what critics say about weather forecasts, generally wind forecasts are 99% spot on. Wind is the biggest driver of a runaway veld fire.
According to sources in the know, unattended fires and malicious fire starting are the biggest causes of veld fires.
Under high FDI conditions it just takes one match, some paper or dry grass and you have the perfect recipe for a runaway veld fire.
Burning plastic off stolen copper wires to increase the value has also been the start of many a fire, according to my source.
This further justifies the clamping down on copper theft, as its secondary damage to the economy is causing the start of these fires.
For the average homeowner, ensure that your grass is always well manicured. Long dry grass is perfect kindling, as well as dry leaves in your gutters. Heaps of dry vegetation on your premises are a definite no.
Finally, even when having a braai, have a bucket of water or sand, or a fire extinguisher, handy. Especially if SAWS has issued a fire warning.
You could be in hot water with your insurer if an uncontrolled fire should start under these conditions.
This week in history:
2017 Snow reported in Elliot and at Tiffendale
Dam Levels
55.96% slightly down from previous weeks 57.09%
Impofu slightly down to 45.59%
Weather Safety Tips:
Share weather safety tips with the younger generation, as they are the most vulnerable. Fire safety tips are most relevant with these persisting dry conditions.
Now on Facebook, Instagram, and X: @WeatherGuruEC
The Herald
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