Last year was a generally good one for SA and the broader Southern African farming sector.
We emerged from a drought and heatwave in 2024 and saw excellent harvests of crops, fruits and vegetables.
Some countries in the region remained net importers of grains and other agricultural products from SA and the rest of the world.
But import needs were much lower than a year earlier, during a drought.
In SA specifically, the broad agricultural sector recovery poses a challenge, however.
Foot and mouth disease has remained a prominent feature of our cattle industry, imposing high costs on farming businesses.
It was only at the end of the year that the government announced its intention to vaccinate the 12.1-million cattle in the national herd.
The logistics of this effort and the sourcing of the vaccines remain significant challenges.
In a few days from now, when we all emerge from our holiday places, this is likely to be one of the preoccupations of SA’s farming sector.
We have private sector companies that could produce vaccines and national entities, such as the Agricultural Research Council and Onderstepoort Biological Products, that must be rejuvenated to play this role.
So far, we have relied on Botswana to supply us with foot and mouth disease vaccines.
But the Botswana supply won’t be sufficient, and there are concerns about the vaccine’s potency.
This cattle industry challenge led to what I have termed “a mixed recovery” in SA’s agricultural sector last year.
The livestock industry is critical, accounting for about half of SA’s farming fortunes.
Therefore, when the sub-sector struggles, the effect is felt across the board.
Beyond the cattle industry, other sub-sectors did well and delivered excellent harvests.
It is for this reason that in the first three quarters of last year, SA’s agricultural exports amounted to $11.7bn (R191bn), up 10% year-on-year.
When we receive the full-year 2025 data, I suspect SA’s agricultural exports would have exceeded $13.7bn (R223.7bn) in 2024 and possibly crossed $14bn (R212bn).
The volumes of exports and prices were generally healthy.
These healthy farming fortunes also extended to the interlinked industries.
For example, we have SA’s agricultural machinery sales data for the 11 months of 2025.
Cumulative tractor sales were 7,176 units, up 19% year-on-year.
The combine harvesters’ sales for the 11 months were at 200 units, up by 3%.
The sales were generally robust throughout the year, with combine harvesters only cooling in recent months.
The one challenge we saw emerge at the end of last year, which will likely be part of conversations this year, is the differing views on trade policy.
As the year drew to a close, I saw news from Botswana that it was banning the import of various vegetables from SA.
Moreover, a few days before Christmas, Mozambique went further in the same direction.
Namibia went so far as to ban imports of some poultry products from SA.
These are not new issues in this region.
We have seen them play out before, and our hope from the start of last year was that the new leaders in some countries would embrace the regional spirit and not attempt to limit SA’s participation in their markets.
What makes this worse is that we are part of the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu), which was formed in 1910 and comprises Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and SA.
Among other things, this bloc ensures the free exchange of goods with no tariffs.
One wonders whether SA should remain part of Sacu?
This will be a discussion point this year.
Aside from the regional issues, being part of Sacu also slows SA’s ambition to broaden its exports and sign free trade agreements with other countries.
In every encounter, SA must play by the rules and secure the backing of other Sacu members.
But if the other Sacu members have no interest in rules, why should SA care?
Beyond these issues, at a production level, we have continued to receive excellent La Niña rains, which have supported crop conditions and the grazing veld across the country.
Thus, I believe we enter this year with far better prospects of a continuous and broad recovery from the already improved conditions of last year.
The favourable rains here at home are also a reality in some other countries in the region, supporting regional agricultural prospects for this year.
- Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz). He is also a senior research fellow in the department of agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University.
The Herald
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