Just a fortnight into the new year and it’s clear that Flight 2026 needs to come with an upgraded safety briefing and a warning label.
Last year, we saw the upending of a long-established world trade order built around finding mutual interests and reciprocity, with ripple effects on trading relationships and geo-strategic positioning as countries responded to protect their economic interests.
Over the festive season, usually a slow news period, it has been hard to switch-off from events in the faraway Caribbean and the US.
The system of international law and agreed conventions — also something built over time by reaching consensus among competing interests — has been thrown into turmoil.
These disruptions largely emanate from the administration of US President Donald Trump, but they have far-reaching consequences and impacts — whichever way you choose to look at it.
It is interesting to note that these upheavals come as the United Nations celebrates its 80th anniversary this year, and never before in its history has the effectiveness of the global body’s role in forging co-operation, agreement and peace among nations been more called into question.
Clearly, any form of global “politeness” in terms of diplomacy, trading relationships, multilateral co-operation and general adherence to established norms and conventions, is now out the window.
The system may not have been perfect, but it did at least provide some certainty.
Many local manufacturers, the bedrock of employment, are highly integrated into global supply chains.
They are impacted by rising political tensions, conflicts and shifting trading relationships around the world, with decisions on manufacturing operations and production locations often made in faraway global headquarters.
Global events thus do have local impact, rippling from the major manufacturers into impact on their supply chains and associated employment.
This week, the review of the African Growth and Opportunity Act resumes in the US and given current tensions, it is difficult to believe that a positive outcome will be achieved for SA.
Coupled with this, to date the Brics grouping has provided limited economic benefit to our economy.
At a national level, there are several positives, signs of “green shoots” for the economy, including the lifting of SA’s grey-listing by the Financial Action Task Force late last year — a signal of improvement in the integrity of the country’s financial systems.
The strengthening rand, declining interest rates and inflation, rising commodity prices, stability in government finances and the country’s first sovereign credit rating upgrade in two decades — these are all positive signals that have some economists issuing upbeat outlooks for the year ahead and the state of the national economy.
The signals remain mixed, however, with December’s drop in the Purchasing Managers’ Index, a key indicator of manufacturing sector confidence, to its lowest level since the Covid pandemic in April 2020.
This has raised alarm bells about the tough operating conditions in this sector, a key engine of economic growth and employment.
As of this week, SA has experienced more than 240 days without loadshedding.
However, rising electricity costs are putting energy-intensive industries such as manufacturing, mining and smelting under severe pressure — again the bedrock of employment, exports and value chains — with warnings of further closures and job losses.
In addition, the quality and reliability of electricity supply at municipal level remains a major concern.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, the availability and quality of water is another looming crisis — dam levels are dropping and there seems no progress in reversing the loss of more than 50% of potable water to leaks, pipe bursts and non-revenue water (losses due to meter tampering and theft).
Local government performance in delivering functioning infrastructure and basic services is key to economic growth, directly impacting productivity, operating and logistics costs and the ability of business to operate and generate investment and employment.
As we look ahead to this year’s local government elections, it is crucial that actions are centred around improving infrastructure and service delivery.
These improvements cannot wait until after an election later this year — they must be addressed with urgency; eyes cannot be taken “off the ball” of service delivery amid political campaigning.
There is no doubt we are operating in a very uncertain, unpredictable and highly volatile global and local environment.
Survival is going to take extraordinary resilience and agility, the ability to look ahead, innovate and adapt rapidly.
There is no doubt that our local economy will need to rapidly diversify and leapfrog to new opportunities if we are to retain and create much-needed jobs.
For the stability and best interests of Nelson Mandela Bay, survival is also going to mean co-operation across business and various civil society constituencies, putting aside competitive and personal interests.
This requires the formation of unlikely partnerships, which are founded upon common principles and ethics, and which on balance are geared at serving the greater good of our local economy and communities.
Every day, week and month matters in the current volatile environment, and we cannot get side-tracked by political side-shows which are focused on winning personal and political gains.
If we all do the right thing in the best interests of citizens, we all win.
Denise van Huyssteen is the chief executive officer of the Nelson Mandela Bay Business Chamber
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