WEATHER GURU | Positive rainfall forecasts give some hope amid water woes

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Sundays are usually lazy days for me, often spent in my Bonsai garden giving my trees their regular pruning and cleaning the pots of those pesky weeds.

Lately, the severe weather up north has kept me indoors in front of my PC doing verification reports.

While we have been experiencing dry weather, it was not the case for large parts of the north and northeastern parts of the country.

Severe thunderstorms, hail and pounding winds have taken their toll.

This Sunday, I planned to spend the whole day outdoors and do my Guru thing by my Bonsais, but alas, the weather was having none of that.

Going outside, I thought winter had suddenly arrived and had to dig out a jacket from the cupboard.

My immediate thought was that this was a sign that winter had arrived early, as I am sure many of you thought the same.

It was off to the record books for a shock revelation; I am really getting old.

The weather for February was normal, in fact slightly warmer than normal, with minimum temperatures more than 1.5°C above average.

There goes my theory on an early winter and the realisation that with age the cold affects one more.

The wonderful 82.6mm measured at the airport was the highest monthly rainfall measured since October 2024, when a monthly total of 173.6mm was recorded.

This was well above the average of 39.3mm for February.

Though this pushed the total summer rainfall (December to February) up to a respectable figure, the total for summer was only 86% of the norm.

The total of 98.2mm was well short of the long-term average of 114.5mm.

With autumn approaching, we can expect morning temperatures to start dropping rapidly.

The good news though is that the seasonal forecast has done a complete turnaround and though the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a weak La Nina state, it is expected to return to a neutral state and potentially rapidly evolve into an El Niño state by end of the southern hemisphere winter.

What this implies is that during autumn and early winter, the southern and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall and the southwestern parts below-normal rainfall.

This is excellent news for our long-suffering farmers and especially the diary farmers in the Alexandria areas and surrounds.

It gave me great pleasure to personally convey this message to some of the farmers over the last few days.

This is the first time I can recall a seasonal forecast being so positive for our region.

We will all be rooting that it holds true.

If the late summer rainfall is anything to go by, a positive shift to a forecasted wet season is highly likely to occur as the models predict.

Before we get too excited about water restrictions being lifted and tariffs lowered, we must note that no matter how full the dams are, we have a massive problem with water leaks and non-revenue water.

There are numerous claims that water leaks account for between 29% and 36% of all consumption, pushing the total for non-revenue water to between a reported 50% and 60%.

It is understandable that one can never completely eradicate water leaks with the ageing infrastructure in the metro, however, major leaks must be attended to immediately and not be left unattended for weeks on end.

The public and opposition political parties have posted photographs on social media of a variety of major leaks such as one on Old Cape Road resulting in an estimated loss of 432kl a day, as well as a burst pipe in Kariega that has not been attended to for months.

Many of these leaks are also caused by vandalism and theft, which speaks to the question of what actions are being taken by our metro police department to protect municipal infrastructure.

It is not only the leaks that are concerning, but it also affects residents’ attitudes towards water-saving requests.

Besides the water leaks, we must contend with the numerous water outages in different parts of the metro on an almost daily basis.

Supply from the Nooitgedacht scheme has also become erratic due to power outages and various other problems.

Though the rain front looks promising, one cannot hold much hope for our council to solve water leaks and other infrastructural shortcomings soon, considering all the political turmoil.

Unfortunately, the poor consumer must foot the bill to receive reliable basic services such as water and electricity.

Water tanks were in the past considered a luxury, but are fast becoming a necessity for every household, and soon solar will join its ranks.

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