Between you and me, I had my doubts about the models forecasting the extreme rainfall for this week in our metro and surrounds.
They usually start off by forecasting vast amounts of rain, and then, as we get closer to the event, the amounts often dwindle into insignificance.
Then the weatherman gets blamed and ridiculed.
That is why I always advise that models can change in the blink of an eye, especially when large amounts of rain are forecast.
Kudos to our Weather Service for sticking their neck out by Sunday afternoon and issuing advisories and warnings about the inclement weather that was forecast to start towards late Tuesday.
Although being skeptical, I heeded the models and my own warnings and proceeded to make my premises flood-safe by cleaning gutters and ensuring there was nothing to obstruct free water flow.
I even lowered the levels in my numerous water tanks, much to the wife’s disgust.
Her exact words to me were: “What if all falls flat like usual, then you have wasted water!”
And by now she is just as paranoid about water as me.
I even got my loyal gardener to knock an extra hole in the wall near my water and pool pumps for drainage, again to the wife’s disgust, but rather safe than sorry was a wise decision in the end.
When Tuesday afternoon came and no rain had fallen as forecast, I must say, I started worrying.
However, I knew from experience that when these systems are delayed, they are normally worse.
When the heavy falls started, I was thinking to myself: “Is this the big one, the flood of biblical proportions I always warn about?”
For many of the younger generation (under 30), it must be the worst that they have experienced, with the last extreme rainfall event occurring on August 2 2006, a full 20 years ago.
On that fateful day 128mm was measured with a total of 192mm being measured over the two-day event.
The current event has so far recorded a total of more than 200 mm, with just short of 128 mm being measured on Wednesday in the western suburbs.
Very coincidental that this figure is so close to the 2006 figure showing that it is almost a carbon copy.
Although this fades in comparison to the major floods of 1968 when 468mm was measured on September 1 and again on March 25 1981, when 309 mm was measured, it can be considered an extreme event.
According to the Rainfall Return Tables for Gqeberha Airport, the rain that fell from 12am to 2am on Wednesday morning was a 1:100 to a 1:200-year event for a 60-minute total.
A total of 12.7mm was measured over five minutes at the peak of the storm with the hourly total ending up at 68.0mm.
At the height of the drought, we could only wish for these figures as a monthly figure, leave alone a daily figure.
Although not topping the 1968 maximum hourly figure of 98.9mm, it did come close.
The big difference is that 1968 ended up with a much larger overall total.
Waking up just before 2am on Wednesday morning, hearing the rain pelting down and having my lounge partially underwater, I became nervous and apprehensive, having lived through 1968 and 1981 and all the other floods in-between.
My thoughts immediately went to all those in low-lying areas and those poor animals left outside in this inclement weather.
All respect to Disaster Management, as by the time of going to press, I have had no reports of injuries or fatalities caused by the storm.
This type of storm is what they call the classical cut-off low or Black Southeaster.
We have numerous cut-off lows passing over the area, but conditions must be perfect for these conditions to cause such extreme rainfall.
They could therefore occur more than once a year as happened in 1974 (four times) and 2012 (three times) making it end up being the second wettest year on record.
Incidentally, in 1979 similar events occurred in the consecutive months of July and August, as well as in 2012 during October and November.
Being complacent and thinking that this will not happen again in our lifetime might be foolish.
Let’s rather consider this as a warning of what could happen and be prepared for a possible worse situation. History has a way of repeating itself.
Prior to 1908, 1968 and 1981 there were numerous similar events, serving as a warning for the extreme floods to follow.
After assessing damage and doing the mopping up, residents’ attention will be shifting towards dam levels.
Run-off water usually takes a considerable amount of time to move from the catchment to the dams. With well over 300 mm recorded over the entire Langkloof catchment, the Churchill and Kouga Dams started overflowing by 8am on Thursday morning. This has meant a ton of water will be flowing to our main storage dam the Impofu, the level of which is rising rapidly.
At the time of going to press there was flood and evacuation warnings for the Gamtoos Valley as well as the Patensie area around the Kouga Dam.
Reports of infrastructural damage in the area as well as on the R62 up the Langkloof have already been received and we will see a lot of mopping up operations over the next few weeks in the area.
This week in history:
1895: On the exact same day floods recorded in Gqeberha (May 5)
Dam Levels
At time of going to press latest figures with the effects of rain not realized.
However, both the Churchill and Kouga Dams are confirmed to be overflowing by 8am Thursday morning.
Weather Safety Tips:
Whenever there is heavy rain, the wise choice is to stay off the roads to be sure you are safe.
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