WANDILE SIHLOBO

The year is shaping up to be another period of mixed fortunes for South Africa’s agriculture.

At an aggregate level, we believe that the sector is likely to see some growth this year.

However, the subsector view will show significant divergence, as various parts of the sector face an array of pressures.

One of these is the ongoing spread of animal diseases, which remains a big risk for livestock farmers.

Another source of strain is the recent floods, which will put pressure on some industries.

That said, conditions remain favourable for some subsectors.

For example, field crops, vegetables, sugarcane, and fruit harvests are likely to increase in the near term, and some of these harvests may reach record levels in the 2025-26 season.

The La Niña rains, combined with the expansion of area plantings, are the core catalysts for the expected better outputs.

The one issue that now lingers on some farmers’ minds is crop quality.

Recent months have seen higher rainfall for a much longer period than usual, through to the start of May.

Ordinarily, the rains taper off from the end of March, allowing summer crops to mature before the winter season.

Despite the concerns, anecdotal evidence suggests the crop may remain in good condition and that any damage from the recent rains may be minimal, particularly in maize.

It also helps that some maize regions were planted later than the typical start of the season, which is mid-October in the eastern parts of the country and mid-November in the western parts.

The late-planted maize is still at the maturing stage, and harvest will likely only begin in June.

For soybean and sunflower seeds, there may be areas where quality could be affected by the recent rains.

Still, this should be at a minimum, and South Africa remains well positioned to have an ample summer grains and oilseed harvest in the 2025-26 season.

For example, the data released by the Crop Estimates Committee at the end of April 2026 showed that SA’s 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed harvest was 20.8 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year.

In the fruit industry, the harvest for citrus this year started slightly later than usual in some regions.

In fact, in some regions, the harvest is not yet in full swing. Given the heavy rains in parts of the Eastern and Western Capes, we will be closely monitoring the progress of these harvests. Some farms have experienced infrastructure damage and crop losses.

But the scale of the losses is unclear, as the assessment remains underway across the various regions.

There are some regions, for example, Patensie in the Eastern Cape province, where farmer estimates suggest that citrus crop losses may be between 15 and 20% of their harvest.

These regions were closer to the harvest stages when they experienced the floods.

Another major challenge is the destruction of public infrastructure, particularly roads and bridges.

This will also strain the transportation of produce to key local and export markets as operations resume at some farms.

The table grape industry has also experienced damage, particularly in areas of the Hex River valley, where orchards and farm infrastructure have been flooded in some farms.

The excessive rains in the Western Cape, in addition to infrastructure damage and destruction in some fields, will also slow wheat, canola and barley plantings in some regions, as they need to dry up a bit before the start of planting.

The ostrich industry has also been affected by floods in some regions of the Southern Cape, but the scale of the damage to these farms remains unclear at the moment and appears to be more localised.

These weather-induced challenges add pressure on the fruit industry, winter crops, and other farming sectors in the Eastern and Western Cape.

Still, the national picture in terms of aggregate agricultural growth should not change much. We remain of the view that SA’s total agricultural sector will continue to grow in 2026, albeit more unevenly across subsectors.

The difference between 2026 and last year is that the weather’s impact on fruits and field crops will be more pronounced in some regions.

The reconstruction following the recent destructive floods is key to facilitating a better recovery in the affected areas, and the local government will need to lead the efforts, working collaboratively with farming communities.

The speedy improvement of roads and connecting bridges is crucial for ensuring that perishable agricultural produce reaches markets.

Wandile Sihlobo, a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council, is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land. He is the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior fellow at Stellenbosch University’s Department of Agricultural Economics.