WEATHER GURU | Abundance at present, but for how long?

Judging by this beautiful autumn weather we are experiencing, who can believe that a few weeks ago we were witnessing the destructive forces of nature.

One positive takeaway from the whole event is the fact that our combined dam levels rose from 36% to 112% in one week, thereby putting us in the safe zone for a while to come.

Unfortunately, there are many that are still counting the costs of the damage caused by the rains, and for many it will take a very long time to recover, while others might never fully recover.

On a happier note, the Gamtoos River Adventure Ferry has been restored and will be up and running from June, after been beached during the flooding of the river.

It would be most interesting to take a sightseeing trip to the mouth after the flood.

Although many an avid gardener is just itching to get their hosepipe out of cold storage and start planning a lush garden again, there has been no official notice from authorities as to lifting of water restrictions or lowering punitive tariffs, much to the frustration of residents, many who are still battling with low water pressure and water outages as well.

Local gardens are flourishing after the rains that fell recently (Mrs Weather Guru )

Logic would dictate that restrictions should at least be lifted while the local dams are overflowing, which they have been since May 8.

This would be a bit of a reward for long suffering residents who towed the line during the recent drought.

Instead, some are still suffering without water for days on end with the now worn-out excuse of low reservoir levels due to infrastructure problems.

Residents, especially those with full water tanks, have every reason to be happy for the moment, but we should, however, be mindful of the history of rainfall in our region, as well as the seasonal forecast going forward.

As to the seasonal forecast, below average rainfall is forecast for the rest of autumn and into winter, I for one surely hope the models are wrong.

If the hype about the ‘super El Niño’ materializes, we will have to hold on to reserves for as long as possible, to avoid ending up in the same situation again, staring at a Day Zero scenario.

Although many have forgotten about the water tankers and emergency water points, we must be mindful that this could happened again and is more than likely will if we do not manage our water recourses to the fullest.

As far as history goes, the metro’s largest supply dam under its control, the Impofu, was full in 1984 and dipped to a critical level of less than 20% only 5 years later in 1989.

Between 1989 and 2015, levels seesawed and only dipped below 40% in September 2010, before recovering again.

With levels at 100% in 2015, levels slowly declined again and dipped below 20% in 2019, a mere 4 years later.

As can be seen, with increased demand and changes in climate, these reserves are not infinite and gaps between maximum capacity and critical are shortening.

It is a given that we have drastically augmented the total supply between 1984 and now.

The Gamtoos River Adventure Ferry has been restored and will be offering cruises from June (Mrs Weather Guru )

Yes, we may have a lucky run, as we had between 1989 and 2015, then again, we might not and end up as we were in May 2023, when the Impofu’s level dropped to 5.31%.

Even if we have a lucky run with favourable rainfall, the more than 7,000 water leaks and aging infrastructure will negate all the positives.

Add to that depleted funds and underspent budgets and we could be back in a water crisis sooner than expected.

Non-revenue water through leaks and other means is destabilising our water supply.

Not only is valuable water being lost, but the revenue needed to repair leaks and upgrade aging infrastructure is also lost. This creates a vicious circle.

Many may argue that even is we had an abundance of revenue it would not solve the issue.

That fact cannot be denied, as it is a question of mismanagement.

This is a sentiment often echoed by the minister of water affairs.

The proverbial saying: “Make hay while the sun shines” is relevant here.

We have an overabundance of water presently, but we must use it sparingly and wisely to make it last until the next dam filling event.

It is up to city hall to start taking management of water seriously in times of abundance and not wait till we are staring at near empty supply dams, then appointing consultants at exuberant rates to ascertain what everybody already knows.