WEATHER GURU | Europe sweltering while it’s a mild winter in Nelson Mandela Bay

While Europe is experiencing one of the worst heatwaves on record, with 1,300 deaths linked to the event, we are experiencing some lovely mild winter weather at the southern tip of Africa.

Many of the deaths in Europe are attributed to heat stress, with the most fatalities being the vulnerable over 65-year-olds.

Record temperatures of above 40C were measured in various parts of the continent during the past few weeks.

Experts attribute the heatwave to a phenomenon called an Omega Block.

This large-scale weather pattern is named after the Greek letter Ω and refers to the shape of the pressure system.

It consists of a warm, high-pressure ridge wedged between two cooler low-pressure systems, which traps hot air brought in from North Africa and the Sahara.

The system is slow moving, with little to no wind; therefore all the hot air is trapped in what they term a heat dome.

Naturally many experts say that the record temperatures are amplified by the effects of climate change.

I had to smile when I read the report about the Paris deputy mayor blaming Americans for the heatwave.

In his statement to American citizens, she claimed: “You bear a significant amount of responsibility for global warming and the consequences we, in France, are experiencing.”

Here she was referring to the US’s increase in the amount of greenhouse emissions.

I think this was political grandstanding as she failed to mention other countries like China and India, which have extremely high greenhouse emissions.

Although this week brought with it a bit of a cold bite, the previous week spoilt us with awesome winter evenings and balmy, wintery days.

So much so that my fig trees have not shed all their leaves as they should have by now.

This is in line with what the long-term seasonal forecast predicted at the beginning of winter, namely higher than normal maximum and minimum temperatures.

The latest forecast predicts that this trend will persist over the entire country till at least spring and beyond.

This was recently echoed in an interview on Carte Blanche with a renowned climatologist, Professor Francois Engelbrecht, who says that the developing Super El Niño will begin impacting Southern Africa in a few months.

He further warned of unprecedented heatwaves in our region going forward.

This should theoretically impact our summer rainfall regions, but above average rainfall is forecast for the entire country until spring, except for us living along the southern coast and adjacent interior.

So far this winter, nighttime temperatures have been milder and ended the month at about two degrees above the norm.

Temperatures have just not dipped that low, with only one night dipping below 5C, as opposed to the norm of four nights in June.

Although I rise slightly later than those days when I had to battle traffic to get to the Met office at the airport on time, I have not yet seen any frost, which usually forms on the grass in the park across from us at this time of year.

This is understandable as temperatures, even in the suburbs, have not come close to freezing.

We have not had that bitterly cold spell yet and we are already in the second month of winter.

Besides the usual dustings of snow on the Drakensburg, there also have not been reports of major snow over the interior.

It is hard to believe that the models are still forecasting a dry season in our region, when June was the third month where the monthly total rainfall was above the long-term average. We are now sitting at a six-month rainfall total of over 500mm, which is higher than the annual total for 2025.

But then again, the rainfall events during May and June were an anomaly.

Considering the less than favourable forecast and all our water woes, that does not look good for residents going forward, as we all know how overflowing dams can quickly run dry up with poor water management.

So ultimately, with the prospect of a dry season, all this warm weather and not many cold snaps, it seems that my hope of getting a crop of asparagus out my garden will stay just that — hope — as it needs a cold rest period to deliver a healthy crop.

The wife has already threatened that it is the compost heap for them if they come to nothing again this season.

At least I can look forward to a healthy crop of tomatoes and beans later in the year.

This week in history:

1995: Record gale force winds experienced in Nelson Mandela Bay

Dam Levels

100.66% down from previous week at 100.87%

Impofu 100.36%

Weather Safety Tips:

Remember that your animals also experience cold and make sure they have a blanket to lay on at night and a sheltered spot to sleep in; ideally bring them indoors.

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