For months now, I have been writing about SA’s expected ample summer grain and oilseed for the current 2025-26 season.
The season’s crop was planted in October 2025 and is currently being harvested.
The major boost to this harvest is the favourable La Niña rains and the decent area plantings.
On June 25 this year, the Crop Estimate Committee placed SA’s 2025-26 summer grain and oilseeds harvest at 21.49 million tonnes, up 2% from the previous month, and 5% up year-on-year (y/y).
This monthly and yearly improvement in the overall harvest is underpinned by upward revisions to major grains and oilseeds, particularly maize, soybeans, dry beans, and sunflower seeds.
If we zoom in on the major staple grains, SA’s 2025-26 maize production estimate is 17.25 million tonnes, up 4% from last season, and the largest harvest on record.
This is due to the back expansion in area plantings and the expected large yields — about 9.28 million tonnes of white maize, and 7.97 million tonnes of yellow maize.
Combined with likely large carryover stocks from the current season, this signals that SA will once again be a net exporter of maize in the 2026-27 marketing year (corresponding to the 2025-26 production season).
SA’s annual maize consumption is 12.00 million tonnes.
There are more than 3.0 million tonnes for exports and ample carryover stocks for next year.
Fortunately, these large maize supplies come at a time when we are also seeing a return of buyers of SA maize, who were absent for much of last year.
For example, Vietnam and South Korea are again among the main buyers so far in the 2026-27 marketing year, which started in May 2026.
In the previous 2025-26 marketing year that ended in April, we did not see much demand from countries in the Far East.
The major buyers of SA’s maize were Zimbabwe and many neighbouring countries.
Among other things, the plentiful supplies in the world market were the main reason we didn’t see much demand from typical maize buyers in the Far East.
They sourced affordable maize from other parts of the world.
Thus, SA’s 2025-26 maize exports fell below the target.
We started that year assuming that SA would export about 2.4 million tonnes of maize, but the actual exports ended at 2.0 million tonnes.
In the 2026-27 marketing year, the export forecast is even more ambitious, at 3.0 million tonnes, up 50% from the previous year because of the expected large harvest.
Again, these exports won’t dent the domestic requirements. There is enough maize for the domestic market and exports.
SA’s maize exports so far in the 2026-27 marketing year total 640,480 tonnes, out of the expected 3.0 million tonnes.
There is still a long way to go, but the export progress so far suggests stronger demand than in the previous marketing year, when SA’s maize exports fell short of target.
Beyond maize, SA’s 2025-26 soybean harvest is estimated at a record 3.04 million tonnes, largely due to higher yields in some regions and large-area plantings (up 9% y/y).
The sunflower seed crop is estimated at 910,530 tonnes, up by 28% y/y.
There is also a decent harvest of small grains, such as groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.
From a consumer perspective, these grain and oilseed production data will continue to put downward pressure on prices, supporting our long-standing view of a moderating path of consumer food price inflation in 2026.
SA’s consumer food price inflation has slowed, at 1.6% in May 2026, down from 2.8% in March.
This is the lowest level in 17 months.
Among other products, the large grain supplies and the subsequent decline in grain-related food products contributed to the decline in consumer food price inflation.
Looking ahead, the path going into 2027 may change from this favourable condition of abundant grain harvest.
The medium-term risk is the forecast El Niño drought, but it will affect the 2026-27 summer grain crop (which corresponds to the 2027-28 marketing year), which will only be planted from October 2026 and will come to market in 2027.
The expected El Niño drought in 2027 also poses an upside risk to consumer food price inflation.
Still, I doubt the food price inflation risks are as notable as others fear.
Wandile Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA, and a senior research fellow in the department of agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University.
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