SA’s agriculture is starting the second half of the year with profound uncertainty about the path ahead.
The risks arise from both domestic and global factors.
From a global perspective, the ongoing war between Iran and the US and its implications for supply chains dependent on the Strait of Hormuz may continue to put upward pressure on critical input costs, mainly fertiliser and fuel.
Just this weekend, we learnt of more hostilities and Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was closed until further notice.
This brings us back to the start of the war, where we faced huge uncertainty about supplies of fuel and fertiliser, among other products, due to logistical challenges in the region.
The prices of fuel and fertiliser are not yet at the levels we saw right after the start of this war and may remain more volatile than normal.
This is a pain point when considering the operating conditions in the farming sector.
Moreover, SA is in the export period for grains, fruit and some meat.
Therefore, the likely higher shipping costs and logistical challenges in the Middle East have brought us back to the position we were in a few months ago, with fears of export disruption.
The Middle East accounts for about 8% of SA’s agricultural exports, valued at about $15.1bn (R248.9bn) in 2025.
Therefore, current friction risks reducing exports to the region, which would further weigh on SA farmers’ finances if the country cannot reroute products efficiently to other markets.
Another challenge, which we have discussed at length in the past, is the likely drought resulting from El Niño during the 2026/2027 summer crop season, which starts in October.
On this, we believe that SA’s better soil moisture, higher dam water levels, and improved seed cultivars used by farmers place the country in a slightly better position than other countries in the region.
Still, when considering the likely drought and higher input costs, there is considerable pressure on farmers ahead of the new season.
On the domestic front, we face multiple issues that require both the government and organised agriculture to work collaboratively.
One of these issues concerns the government’s openness to registering new genetic techniques for seeds.
Given the challenges posed by climate change, the sector’s long-term sustainability will require nimble decision-making by the government.
For the SA agricultural sector to remain competitive and cope with a changing environment, seed breeding must remain a priority.
Now, SA has adopted a lacklustre approach to the registration of new genetic techniques, and this may prove costly in the medium to long term.
The regulators must change this approach and return the country to its long-known position of embracing technology in farming.
While we are approaching a drought period and are concerned that agricultural output may decline in 2027, SA’s push to diversify into new markets must not stop.
The recognition of this need is well articulated, but material intervention remains missing.
Such an intervention would entail increasing human capital across SA’s missions globally and placing greater focus on economic diplomacy and trade issues.
This would also require that, in Pretoria, the government has essential staff who work well with industry and negotiate new markets for the country.
For much of 2025, the SA government conducted official state visits to various countries, and export issues were discussed.
But until we have technical teams that follow up on such visits, we will not succeed.
The long-discussed need to review the Southern African Customs Union to give SA some flexibility in opening new export markets is part of the necessary trade reconfiguration effort.
Logistics, roads, rail and port efficiency are also vital steps that must remain priorities beyond high-level conversations.
Material collaboration between the business and private sectors to increase efficiency in Cape Town is vital.
Beyond this, many aspects of land reform, animal disease, stock theft and poor municipal performance, among other challenges, continue to present difficulties for the sector.
Therefore, the work of various government and organised business interventions should continue to focus on these.
When geopolitical shifts occur, SA’s agriculture will have to confront these domestically oriented constraints to propel the sector’s growth and create jobs.
Wandile Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, and a senior research fellow in the department of agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University
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