Hopes for economic stability in Trump era go up in smoke

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Just as economic indicators were beginning to suggest that the world was slowly adjusting to the realities of Donald Trump’s second stint as the US president and his tendency to make rules with international implications as he goes, it is plunged into a new and potentially devastating crisis.

On Saturday morning, South African time, US and Israeli forces launched a massive military attack on Iran which they say, among other things, is aimed at bringing about a regime change in Tehran.

While the US and Israeli attack was immediately condemned as illegal by the United Nations as well as South Africa and many other countries around the world, the Iranians responded with missile attacks of their own — targeting US military bases in neighbouring Gulf countries and bombing Israeli cities.

The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by joint US-Israeli strikes, has fuelled fears that the latest conflict will last for a long period — drawing in multiple countries on either side of the war.

This would have serious consequences for the world economy, with crude oil prices spiralling and intercontinental trade being disrupted.

Supporters of the US strike say the military attack would finally put an end to a regime that has ruled over Tehran since the 1979 Islamic regime, hence helping to usher in a new era of democracy and human rights.

However, past experience of the US’s “regime change” interventions, especially in the Middle East, shows that these often result in disaster with the “liberated” country turning into dystopia.

That is why many believe that while the Iranian population — which has been holding pro-democracy protests in the capital, Tehran, and other cities over the past few weeks — deserves change, this should not come via a US-Israeli attack.

In the end, the real solution to the conflict would be for the conflicting sides to return to the negotiating table and for the Iranian people to start their own dialogue about the kind of reforms needed to take the country forward.