With the ANC’s support base in KwaZulu-Natal imploding in the face of the rise of Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, the Eastern Cape has become the single most important province for the ruling party.
In terms of party membership, the province is now the largest and will most likely have the biggest delegation at the ANC’s next national conference where the successor to President Cyril Ramaphosa will be elected.
Most importantly, given the ruling party’s declining national share of the votes, the Eastern Cape is still a relatively safe constituency for the ANC — even though in urban areas such as Gqeberha and KuGompo, the party can no longer hold majorities.
Hence, Ramaphosa and ANC NEC members are spending a lot of time in the province hoping this will translate into the party holding on to its electoral base here and convince party branches to support their preferred slates at the next national conference.
All of this has made the party’s provincial leadership both powerful and influential within the ANC.
Much of the debate over the ANC’s leadership succession post Ramaphosa is never complete without a discussion about giving the Eastern Cape the party’s deputy presidency in the hope that this would secure the provincial delegation’s support for whoever would be nominated for the presidency.
Hence, when Ramaphosa was weighing his options with regards to now fired social development minister Sisisi Tolashe, he would have consulted the ANC’s provincial leadership about his plans to fire one of their most senior deployees to cabinet.
In considering her replacement, the president would most probably consult the Eastern Cape’s ANC, which would likely propose that another MP from the province be promoted to cabinet.
The province’s growing power and influence, however, is unfortunately not accompanied by the emergence of a talented pool of leaders from the province who can take the country forward.
Instead, as was the case when KwaZulu-Natal was dominant within the party, what we see is the rise of politicians who either failed or were uninspiring at local government level being promoted to national level purely based on internal ruling party dynamics.
While ensuring adequate provincial representation in the national executive is important, this should not trump the need to appoint only the best to cabinet.
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